Mixed Signals From The Media On The Market -
Who Should You Trust?
(Answer: Your Local Real Estate Expert)

Published on September 20,2023 by Chris Thompson

I just read a very insightful article today from FAR (Florida Association of Realtors) that tries to explain the very unique and weird market we are currently in – both here in Florida and across the U.S. This article explains that headlines across the nation seem to be all over the place – Good Market to Buy/Sell, Bad Market to Buy/Sell, Prices are falling, Prices are rising, Lowest … Highest… Ever!. The article explains that each article is basically touting statistics that are all right… and they are mostly talking about different metrics. For example: Median Sales Price is different from Average Sales Price.  

Let me break this down for you in very easy terms: I tell my clients every single day: Don’t trust the headlines. They are designed to get an emotional response out of you – that is it. They are not designed to HELP YOU. Here is the bottom line from your local real estate expert (Team Thompson): We are in a ‘transaction crash’ currently. That is all. Year over year we are seeing far fewer homes selling than last year. Why?

Because sellers bought or refinanced when rates were super low over the last few years.  Most in the 2%-5% range.  And they don’t NEED to move and pay 7-8% interest.  They are just staying put where, in the past they would have simply moved because they WANT to.  Many buyers have unfortunately been priced out of buying a home they can afford because interest rates have gone up ALONG WITH inflation of almost everything we buy and consume over the past year and a half.
 
What about the “market”?  Is it up?  Is it down?  
 
The market:  Home Prices are pretty stable (at least here in Central Florida.)  Normally, when there is a shortage of inventory, prices will rise.  We DO have a shortage of inventory.  Normally, when interest rates move up a good bit (which they have this past year) fewer buyers are in the market to buy and prices will drop.  The key word is “Normally”.  We are NOT in a NORMAL market.  It seems that these 2 big situations are counteracting things in a very balanced way which is creating somewhat of a “balanced” market for the most part here in our area.  That means we don’t have prices moving up or down very much IF THEY ARE PRICED RIGHT TO BEGIN WITH.  We also don’t have multiple offers on properties – except in certain situations.  We do not have a lot of foreclosures.  It is a very normal market.
 
What does this mean for those needing to buy and/or sell?  
Simple, if you need to sell… Sell.  If you need to buy… Buy.  
 
If you are SELLING – Price it correctly to the current market.  Overpricing it will make it sit on the market longer and get you less in your pocket than if you had priced it right to begin with.  
 
If you are BUYING – Don’t worry about the rate as much.  You can either spend more to buy it down or refinance if and when prices move down.  You will LOSE money waiting for interest rates to come down because you are not GAINING EQUITY.  For instance if prices rise in 2024 at a normal rate (about 3-5%/year) but interest rates remain the same – You will have lost on a $400,000 home about $12,000 to $20,000!  The difference in 1% interest rate payment you would have paid would only have been about $3,000.  A HUGE net loss for waiting.
 
To summarize:  Contact us if you’d like to buy or sell… or simply get an update on your home value… or ask about the market… or need a vendor!  We are here for you as we have been for 25+ years!  

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